FAO Food Price Index rises in September amid weather concerns and transport disruptions

Rome – FAO’s benchmark measure of world food commodity prices increased in September, due mostly to transportation disruptions and weather concerns that constrained availability as well as to higher quotations for crop-based commodity groups, according to new data released Friday by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a basket of globally-traded food commodities, averaged 136.0 points in September 2026, up 1.5 percent from August and 5.8 percent from a year ago.

“We are seeing a persistent and increasingly broad based build up in global commodity prices, as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea combine with climate shocks, putting pressure on energy, transport and key food commodities,” said FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero. “If sustained, these pressures will soon pass through to consumer food prices, especially in food and energy import dependent countries.”

The FAO Cereal Price Index increased by 5.1 percent from August, averaging 17.2 percent higher than its September 2025 level. World wheat prices increased by 6.3 percent, due to logistical constraints in the Black Sea region and dry weather in parts of North America ahead of sowing, while global maize prices rose by 5.6 percent from the previous month due to concerns over yields in the United States of America, reduced export availability in Brazil and disruptions to Black Sea trade. Ongoing uncertainty over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz provided additional support to prices of biofuel feedstocks such as maize. The FAO All Rice Price Index increased by 1.4 percent, as Indica quotations rose amid weather concerns and seasonally tighter supplies.

The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index increased by 0.9 percent from August, reflecting higher world palm oil prices associated with strong global import demand and concerns over the impact of dry weather on production prospects in Southeast Asia.

The FAO Meat Price Index declined by 1.1 percent, as pig and poultry meat prices fell amid abundant exportable supplies. Brazil’s bovine meat export quotations increased, supported by stronger import demand by the United States of America, while ovine meat prices remained largely stable.

The FAO Dairy Price Index dipped by 0.1 percent in September, as declines in cheese prices slightly offset increases in milk powder quotations, while butter prices changed little.

The FAO Sugar Price Index increased by 6.1 percent from August, driven by expectations of tighter global sugar supplies in the 2026/27 season. Contributing factors included lower expected sugar production in Thailand, concerns over crop prospects in India due to below-normal rainfall and strengthening El Niño conditions, heavy rains in Brazil’s Centre-South growing region, and a decline in the area planted to sugar beet in the European Union.

More details are available here.

Global cereal production and trade forecast to decline

Global cereal production in 2026 is now forecast to decline by 2.1 percent from 2025 to at 2 979 million tonnes, which would still represent the second-largest harvest on record after last year’s level, according to the new Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, also released by FAO today.

The updated forecast reflects an upward revision for wheat production, now expected to reach 813.9 million tonnes thanks to improved weather conditions in Australia, which is more than offset by a downward adjustment for coarse grains, now pegged at 1 612 million tonnes as a result of reduced yield prospects in the European Union and the United States of America due to hot and dry weather.  World rice output is now forecast at 552.5 million tonnes as lower production prospects in India, due largely to poorly distributed monsoon rains, outweigh improved forecasts for Japan and Nepal.

FAO slightly raised its forecast for world total cereal utilization in 2026/27 to 2 966 million tonnes, with increases for coarse grains, a decline for wheat, and no change for rice from the previous month’s forecasts.

World cereal stocks at the close of seasons in 2027 are forecast to remain unchanged from their opening levels at 950 million tonnes, as higher stocks of wheat and barley are expected to outweigh drawdowns in rice and sorghum stocks. The resulting world cereals stocks-to-use ratio at the end of seasons in 2026/27 now stands at 31.7 percent, slightly down from the previous season’s level of 32.0 percent.

FAO also predicts world trade in cereals to decline by 3.5 percent from the record level in 2025/26, to 505.8 million tonnes. Wheat and maize exports will likely drop more than previously anticipated, due largely to constrained Black Sea shipping routes and insufficient alternative transport capacity. International rice trade is forecast to decline by 2.2 percent in 2026 before recovering by 1.7 percent in 2027.

More details are available here.

The Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS), hosted by FAO, also published its monthly Market Monitor today, noting that elevated freight rates, firmer fertilizer markets and continued logistical disruptions are contributing to a more uncertain market environment.

El Niño

The Monitor includes a feature article noting that the strengthening El Niño is adding further uncertainty to production prospects, particularly for rice in South and Southeast Asia. At the global level, rice yields during an El Niño event are typically 1.0 to 1.5 percent below their expected trend, while wheat and maize yields are generally near normal levels, and soybean yields are often 1.5 to 2.0 percent above trend.  Stronger El Niño events are associated with more predictable, though usually not more severe, yield outcomes, whereas weaker events are associated with greater variability, according to the report.