The Future of Livestock Antibiotics : Business as Usual Is Not an Option

Antimicrobials are widely used in livestock production to manage disease and safeguard productivity. However, their overuse and misuse contribute to the emergence of antimicrobial resistance (AMR), a growing threat to animal health, public health, and the long-term sustainability of agrifood systems.

There is increasing global momentum to address this challenge. The Political Declaration of the 79th United Nations General Assembly has called for significant reductions in antimicrobial use (AMU) across food and agriculture by 2030. While these commitments mark a critical step forward, delivering results will require coordinated, evidence-based action and sustained investment.

Our recent study, published in Nature Communications, presents the first global projections of livestock-related AMU through 2040. If current trends persist, the use of antibiotics in farm animals could rise by nearly 30 percent, reaching approximately 143,000 tons. Regional estimates suggest that the Asia-Pacific region may account for 65 percent of global use, with South America contributing around 19 percent.

A veterinarian working in a laminar flow cabinet in a laboratory, ensuring sterile conditions for microbiological research.
© FAO/Sergei Gapon

The continuation of these trends, however, is not inevitable. Our analysis shows that halving antimicrobial use intensity (AMUI), when paired with improvements in productivity, could reduce global AMU by up to 57 percent by 2040. This underscores a critical insight: the same systems currently driving antimicrobial demand can become the foundation for more sustainable practices.

A central contribution of our study is the development of the Livestock Biomass Conversion (LBC) method, a new approach to estimating livestock biomass that accounts for species, production systems, and lifecycle parameters. This method addresses key limitations of traditional metrics and enables more accurate calculation of AMUI, strengthening the foundation for global AMU monitoring and policy design. For example, the LBC method indicates that the total quantity of antibiotics used in livestock could be approximately 11.4% higher than previously estimated.

Productivity improvements remain an essential part of the solution. Interventions such as reducing mortality and morbidity, improving feed conversion efficiency, optimizing animal densities, and applying tailored herd management strategies can substantially reduce AMU without compromising output.

This logic is already being applied through FAO’s RENOFARM initiative, a global effort to support countries in reducing the need for antimicrobials at farm level. RENOFARM promotes the adoption of science-based practices through the "5 Gs": Good Health Services, Good Production Practices, Good Alternatives, Good Connections, and Good Incentives.

Ultimately, this is about more than reducing antibiotic use. It is about rethinking the way we produce food, creating agrifood systems that are healthier, more sustainable, and more equitable. Our study offers more than a forecast. It equips decision-makers with the evidence needed to understand where current patterns of antibiotic use are heading, and what can be done to change course before it is too late.

Learn more:

The future of antibiotic use in livestock Nature Communications volume 16, Article number: 2469 (2025)

Alejandro Acosta is a Livestock Economist and Policy Officer at FAO

Junxia Song is a Senior Animal Health Officer and AMR Focal Point at FAO