Built to last: what it takes to keep Central Asia’s breadbasket full

The summer of 2026 was Kazakhstan’s hottest on record. Average temperatures were 2.15°C above the climate norm, and rainfall was below normal across much of the east and south-east, according to the national hydrometeorological service, Kazhydromet.

How Kazakhstan’s agriculture copes with such conditions matters for food security well beyond its borders. The country ranks second in the world for flour exports and seventh for wheat , and it has export ties across the region.

The question, then, is not only how much grain Kazakhstan can grow, but how reliably it can keep growing it. Part of the answer lies in innovation – better seeds, data and digital tools being developed in Kazakhstan and designed to be shared across the region.

A shared breadbasket, shared pressures

Countries across Central Asia face many of the same pressures: drought, land degradation, water scarcity, extreme heat and transboundary pests. In May 2026, at the Thirty-fifth Session of the FAO Regional Conference for Europe (ERC35) in Dushanbe, FAO launched the Central Asia Breadbasket Initiative to strengthen the region’s wheat value chain – from seeds and agronomic practices to irrigation, storage, markets and investment.

“Central Asia has everything it needs to become an even stronger and more resilient breadbasket,” said Viorel Gutu, FAO Assistant Director-General and Regional Representative for Europe and Central Asia. 

“Many of the challenges facing agriculture in the region are shared across borders, and so are many of the solutions,” he added. “Those developed and tested in Kazakhstan – from better seed systems and soil monitoring to digital tools for managing transboundary pests – can benefit the wider region.”

In July 2026, FAO and Kazakhstan launched three projects on breeding and seed systems, locust monitoring and forecasting, and soil organic carbon monitoring under the FAO–Kazakhstan Partnership Programme.

Drones, data and AI: getting ahead of locust outbreaks 

Every year, locusts infest around 7.6 million hectares across the Caucasus and Central Asia, putting more than 25 million hectares of cultivated land and the livelihoods of at least 20 million people at risk. Locusts are transboundary pests: outbreaks that start in one country can quickly spread to neighbouring countries, damaging crops and pastures.

The new three-year locust management project is building a digital system that combines field surveys, remote sensing and drone data with artificial intelligence to detect and forecast locust activity. The system will also include a machine-learning tool to identify locust species automatically, helping authorities act before outbreaks spread.

“Locusts do not stop at borders, and neither can our response,” Gutu said. “When Kazakhstan moves from reacting to outbreaks to forecasting them, that early warning becomes valuable to every country that shares the same risk.”
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are already sharing their experiences in the use of drones, and the new system will be integrated with FAO’s Caucasus and Central Asia Locust Management System (CCALM), so that other countries in the region can also draw on it. 

Resilience from the ground up

Through the national “Kazakhstan Varieties and Seeds” initiative, FAO is supporting domestic breeding and seed production. Modern approaches, including marker-assisted and accelerated breeding, can help develop varieties better adapted to drought, extreme temperatures and emerging diseases – challenges shared across much of Central Asia.

Kazakhstan and FAO are developing a national soil organic carbon monitoring system that will combine geospatial technologies, digital data and modern monitoring, reporting and verification methods to provide decision-makers with better data on soil health, carbon sequestration and land restoration.

Lessons for the whole region

Once proven, these approaches can be adapted elsewhere in Central Asia, so that other countries do not have to build similar tools from scratch.

“A true breadbasket is measured not only by the size of its harvest, but by its ability to keep producing when conditions turn against it,” Gutu said. “Building such a breadbasket is a shared task, and FAO is ready to support it.”

Kazakhstan’s record-breaking summer may not be the last. The seeds, soil data and early-warning systems being developed today are how Kazakhstan and its neighbours can help ensure that, whatever the weather, Central Asia’s breadbasket keeps delivering.